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U.S. recession could be 40% in 2025, what does this mean for cryptocurrencies – Analysts

by | Mar 29, 2025 | Crypto | 0 comments

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According to market analyst and founder of Coin Bureau Nic Puckrin, a 40% chance of a recession in 2025, a possibility of lasting trade wars and macroeconomic uncertainty.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, analysts said that while the recession is impossible, the recession and current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where cryptocurrencies, such as cryptocurrencies, are affected. Puckrin says:

“Trump and his advisers said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which is definitely possible, but now, I won’t say it may be possible, but the odds are greatly increased.”

Analysts added that U.S. President Donald Trump is not actively trying to exercise the recession, but rather what the Trump administration is doing, including cutting spending on federal work and balancing budgets could lead to recession as a side effect.

Puckrin told Cointelegraph that macroeconomic uncertainty is the main reason for the recent decline of the dollar index (DXY) as investors move capital to better opportunities for European capital markets and seek to get rid of the economic uncertainty that currently plagues the U.S. market.

Economics, U.S. Government, U.S.

DXY, which tracks the strength of the dollar, has occupied a nose in March 2025. Source: TradingView

Related: Timetable: How Trump’s tariffs drag bitcoin below 8.0k

Trade war fears reducing Bitcoin price

President Trump’s tariffs on U.S. trading partners have caused a shock wave in the cryptocurrency market, causing a sharp drop in altcoins prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising 24% from the high price of $109,000 higher on January 20.

Tariffs and concerns over the prolonged trade war also redirected market sentiment for extreme fears – a ecstatic climax formed a stark contrast after the reelection of the U.S. Donald Trump in November 2025 and the inauguration on January 20.

Economics, U.S. Government, U.S.

Bitcoin’s price has been struggling in the trade war headlines and is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). source: TradingView

According to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, the cryptocurrency market will feel pressure from tariffs by April 2025.

Analysts added that if countries can successfully negotiate a termination of tariffs or the Trump administration will weaken their stance, the market will resume.

10x research founder Markus Thielen recently said BTC constituted a price lowest in March 2025 as U.S. President Donald Trump softened his remarks surrounding trade tariffs, suggesting potential prices were reversed.

Magazine: Bitcoin has been “all” on Trump since Bitcoin, but it has become very risky