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President Trump is amid his growing frustration over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to stop the Ukrainian war, days before Trump’s deadline to stop the ceasefire.
Trump said last week that he was handing over two “nuclear” submarines to Russia in response to comments threatening Kremlin officials. On Sunday, he confirmed that the ship is now “in the area.”
It is unclear whether Trump refers to nuclear-weapon submarines or nuclear-powered attack submarines, but this confusion adds to the president’s Friday deadline for ending the war in Russia or facing further economic quarantine.
Experts say it is a risky strategy and unlikely to swing Putin, who hampers the promise of the presidential campaign to end the Ukrainian war within 24 hours of returning to the White House.
“I don’t see many benefits or advantages because the Russians know very well that our submarines with nuclear weapons for decades can target what matters to them,” said Erin Dumbacher, a Stanton nuclear security officer.
“I see more risks than rewards for using such statements.”
Although experts do not see the looming threat, they warn that careless and exaggerated statements can lead to dangerous miscalculation and confrontation.
“Does this mean suddenly that we should all go to the cellar and lock ourselves up? No,” former Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.), executive director of the Weapons Control Center and the Center for Non-Proliferation, said on a phone call on the hill.
“The main focus is that nuclear rhetoric can easily lead to misrepresentation or miscalculation that leads to disasters. Trump’s verbal interaction with essentially powerless Russian politicians is inappropriate,” he said in an earlier statement. “What is needed is a stable hand, not a person who makes him angry at his personal insults risk escalating the situation.”
Trump’s special envoy for peace mission Steve Witkoff is expected to be held in Moscow later this week, pushing Putin to agree to a ceasefire. If it fails, Ukrainian supporters hope Trump can trigger “secondary tariffs” from countries that import oil from Russia to stifle the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed the movement of American submarines to nearby waters on Monday, saying it did not want to be dragged into the tit tat upgrade.
“On a whole, of course, we don’t want to participate in this controversy, nor do we want to comment on it in any way,” Peskov told reporters. “Of course, we believe everyone should be very, very cautious about nuclear remarks.”
Peskov added that Russia does not currently consider the movement an escalation.
He added: “It’s obvious that very complex, very sensitive issues are being discussed, and of course, this is emotionally perceived by many people.”
Trump announced the move after what he called a “highly provocative statement” and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is now vice chairman of the country’s security committee.
Medvedev criticized Trump’s foreign policy and sanctions threats. Earlier this week, Trump reduced Russia’s 50-day schedule to arrive at a ceasefire after repeatedly slamming Putin for continuing to attack Ukraine.
Medvedev, a frequently-appeared anti-Western critic who has no decision-making capabilities in the Russian government, said Trump “has a final game with Russia: 50 or 10 days,” warning that “the risk of war between nuclear weapons opponents.”
He also mentioned Russia’s “dead hands” capability, a Cold War relic that describes Moscow’s ability to launch a nuclear strike, even if the Russian leader was cancelled.
“Voice is very important and often leads to unexpected consequences,” Trump replied in a truth-clarifying social position. “I hope this won’t be one of these situations.”
Trump has wielded the U.S. nuclear arsenal in the past, especially in his attempt to make North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions during his first term. Trump has often raised the prospects of a nuclear war with Pyongyang, boasting that he would release “fire and anger” to the country and have “bigger” and “stronger” nuclear arsenals.
Experts say Trump’s latest move to send two U.S. nuclear submarines to circles near Russia is unlikely to attract major concerns in Moscow, as the ships patrol the oceans around the world every day.
However, intensified speech and focus on misestimation are key gaps in nuclear energy control and non-proliferation efforts.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday it was not subject to moratoriums on short-term and intermediate missiles, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said it was a response to our discussion on deploying long-range traditional missiles to Europe. The missiles were banned under the medium-range nuclear force treaty, which Trump withdrew from during his first term in the event of Russia’s violation.
A new beginning treaty between the United States and Russia will expire in February. The treaty imposes restrictions on the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia and allows mutual inspection and verification.
Russia suspended participation in the treaty in 2023, and the United States took countermeasures to effectively suspend US participation, raising concerns among nuclear weapons control experts about the next step.
“I haven’t seen a lot of conversations about what will happen after this to limit or limit or even maintain current levels,” said Dumbacher, who was recently a CFR International Affairs Fellow at the Pentagon. In this role, she helped make the language signed by the United States and China, that humans, rather than artificial intelligence, should control nuclear weapons.
Dubach pointed out that Russia is not a party to the agreement, which shows Medvedev’s threat to Russia’s “dead hands”.
“I think every nuclear-weapon state should sign such confidence-building measures, and we say we will never hand over this decision to the machine,” she said.
Even if Trump’s rhetoric on Russia has increased, the president still regards nuclear weapons control as a priority. He said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that he hopes to hold talks with Russia and China on reducing nuclear weapons. Trump has the ability to stop the fight between Pakistan and India to avoid nuclear war.
Rose Gottemoeller, who served as NATO deputy secretary-general from 2016-19, noted Trump’s success in freezing Putin on all nuclear warheads in 2019, and his recent signal that he was not interested in the U.S. building more warheads in the U.S..
“Today’s American political reality requires that the next weapons control treaty must be fully owned by President Donald Trump,” Gottemoeller wrote in an article in the Atomic Scientist Gazette late last month.
“As President Trump has shown his willingness to limit the warhead issue, the current U.S. government has the opportunity to train new territory in nuclear weapons control.”