Stars aggregate Bitcoin rally to $100K, but futures traders steer cautiously – That’s why

Key points:

• BTC hit $97,900 due to soaring demand from institutional investors, but futures pricing shows that traders are not confident about the ongoing rally.

• Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions have limited bullish sentiment despite $3.6 billion inflows of BTC ETFs.

• The lean optimism of the BTC option indicates that big players expect an increase, but their caution makes utilization less effective.

After a limited six days of movement, Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1. Despite reaching the highest price in 10 weeks, sentiment remains neutral according to BTC derivatives indicators. This price action has already occurred with a large net inflow of Bitcoin funds (ETFs) on the U.S. spot exchange.

Some disappointment among traders can be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which is starting to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders worry that price performance could be restricted despite growing concerns among institutional investors about the recession. This concern reduces the likelihood that BTC will reach $110,000 or more in 2025.

Over the past week, the annual premium of Bitcoin two-month futures has been between 6% and 7%, remaining within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, traders’ sentiment weakened when Bitcoin traded nearly $95,000 and futures premiums exceeded 10%. These data suggest that there is less optimism, or at least less belief, of rising to $100,000 and above, at a further price.

Gold’s performance outweighs Bitcoin’s modest gains

Some market participants pointed out that Gold’s 20% rally, from $2,680 to $3,220, is a source of concern. Although Bitcoin has recently surpassed Silver’s $1.8 trillion market cap to become the seventh largest asset in the world’s tradable assets, Gold’s valuation growth has masked that achievement. Investors are worried that Bitcoin’s close correlation with the stock market has reduced the appeal of its “digital gold” narrative.

The likelihood of net inflows of $3.6 billion to U.S. ETFs over the past two weeks is also likely to be driven by a delta neutral strategy. In this case, traffic reflects the bitcoin holder moving to the listed product or using derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on price will be limited, consistent with Bitcoin’s 5% growth over the period.

To determine if a professional trader is suitable for Bitcoin for approximately $97,500, it is helpful to check the BTC options market.

The BTC option 25% Delta skew metric is currently close to its lowest level since February 15, suggesting that whales and market makers have a higher chance from here. This marks a sharp reversal (sell) option three weeks ago trading at a premium.

Related: Bitcoin uncertainty is approaching recession, US-China tariff talks begin

Bitcoin derivatives elasticity helps BTC price rise

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives show moderate optimism. Traders usually expect further price increases, but the bulls avoid using leverage. One might argue that this creates ideal conditions for a surprising rally, especially since the $74,500 retest on April 9 did not significantly affect the BTC derivatives.

The most important factor affecting Bitcoin performance remains the business relationship between the United States and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin may continue to track the S&P 500. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching new all-time highs in the near term, BTC derivatives currently support the Bulls slightly.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views and opinions.