New Bitcoin price all-time highs could happen in May – That’s why

Key points:

• The massive liquidation played a role in Bitcoin’s return of $95,000.

• Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks weakens its growth in independence as an asset.

• The positioning of bullish institutional investors contrasts with the care of retailers, which supports over $100,000 in rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) acquired an 11% stake between April 20 and April 26, demonstrating its resilience, with its elasticity around $94,000 around its two-month high. The relief rally follows the Trump administration’s signal to ease import tariffs and a strong corporate earnings report.

Investor confidence in Bitcoin further strengthened a record $3.1 billion net inflow to discover funds (ETFs) that traded Bitcoin within five days. However, the key BTC derivative indicators show signs of bearish momentum, raising questions about whether the $100,000 target remains realistic.

Permanent Bitcoin futures contracts are favored by retail traders because of their prices closely tracking the spot market. A positive funding rate means buyers pay for maintaining their position, so this rate reversal is often associated with a bearish trend.

The huge negative funding rates recorded on April 26 were very unusual during the bull market because they indicated stronger demand from sellers. The metric has been volatile since April 14, but as Bitcoin prices rise, sellers caught off guard. More than $450 million in short BTC positions have been liquidated since April 21.

Some new confidence and Bitcoin’s price intensity can be attributed to the S&P 500’s weekly 7.1%. However, despite this optimism, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly said on April 25 that the negotiations would depend on China’s concessions, causing traders to question the sustainability of recent earnings.

Companies are now reporting first-quarter earnings from the escalation of the trade war, so the factors driving stocks and bitcoin are different. In fact, the price of Bitcoin is no longer closely related to the S&P 500.

Currently, the 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin is 29%, well below the 60% level from March to mid-April. While this lower correlation does not mean a complete decoupling, as investor sentiment is still affected by macroeconomic factors, it does show that Bitcoin is more than just a proxy for technology stocks.

Bitcoin’s status as an independent asset has been enhanced

After hitting an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22, Gold was unable to maintain its bullish momentum, which is important for Bitcoin’s position as a separate asset class. Some traders have questioned the narrative of “digital gold”, but BTC continues to grow, and the greater the confidence investors may have, it may pave the way for further returns.

Permanent futures The increased demand for bearish leverage in futures does not match the views of professional traders. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid volatility in financing rates, so traders will know their utilization fees in advance.

On April 26, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (base interest rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating greater interest in bullish positions. The indicator is 6.5%, staying within the neutral 5% to 10%, but staying away from bearish territory.

It is not uncommon to have a disconnect between the profit demand for a permanent future and the monthly BTC contract. Even if retailers remain cautious, the massive accumulation of institutions is enough to launch Bitcoin over $100,000 in the near future.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views and opinions.