Interest rate updates in real time: Break-No relief as RBA announces holdings

Join us to roll out the official cash announcement of the Australian Reserve announcement as well as expert comments from economists and everything you need to know after the announcement of Michele Bullock press conference.

The borrower has no relief

2.42pm

Today’s decision to keep cash rates steady at 3.60% is undoubtedly disappointing for families with mortgages. Another 0.25% of people who cut from banks could have seen those with $500,000 in home loans save about $80 a month.

But for those looking to enter the real estate ladder this spring sales season, house prices are expected to be more stable than lowering interest rates.

Lenders may also consider putting more loan options on the market to ensure more customers get the market. This is especially likely to predict tax rates reductions in early November.

The cash rate is stable at 3.60%

2.30pm

The Reserve Bank of Australia has confirmed that the cash rate in Australia will not change and it will remain at 3.60%.

This afternoon’s decision was in line with market and economists’ expectations and believed that the bank’s relaxation cycle trajectory continues. Continuous cuts, holdings, cuttings, holding decision-making models have now lasted for seven months, gradually eased the crisis of cost of living, and the country has worked hard to stabilize inflation.

Borrowers, homeowners and real estate seekers still have two opportunities to benefit from lower interest rates this year, but the board will meet again in November and December.

Economist phone number: Cutting costs is unlikely

2.13pm

REA Group Economics Manager Angus Moore said it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank of Australia will take a surprising move this afternoon as inflation increases.

“It’s unlikely that we’ll see a lot from them this month,” he said. “The monthly CPI metric is higher in August, which makes the chances of cuts less likely.

“The Reserve Bank of Australia will hope to wait for the next quarter’s CPI release at the end of next month, which will be a little ahead of the November meeting. This will give them more information on how inflation is tracked, especially since they are not adding weight to the monthly CPI indicator.”

Interest rate forecasts for the four major banks

2.03pm

The National Bank of Australia previously expected to lower interest rates further this year, but now it has been retrospectively retroactively, and there will be more changes in cash rates until 2026.

Australia’s largest lender, Federal Bank, predicts the next drop in November, although its economists warned this week that the latest CPI indicators could change the outlook. Westpac said that while it’s still their basic case, the cuts in November are now lower. Neither bank predicts today’s cuts.

ANZ economists also expect a lower tax rate in November, but say there is now a “real risk”.

Read more: Ended: Big Banks Bombshell Warning Not to Cut Tax Rate Again

Rhea demands interest rate cuts

1.46pm

The Australian Real Estate Institute is urging the Reserve Bank to cultivate exchange rates today, although ABS confirmed the recent increase in headline inflation last week.

While August data marks the highest annual inflation rate in 13 months, Vice President Hannah Gill noted that the average annual pruning inflation rate is still within the RBA’s 2-3% target range and is enough to cut banks.

The industry body said the balance of the property market is crucial, adding that actions that help address the core real estate market issues of affordability and lack of housing supply remain important.

Read more: Australian property big names gather to tackle homelessness

House prices continue to rise

1.29pm

Australians continue to struggle with rising real estate prices, with the latest PropTrack home price index confirming August’s eighth straight month of price growth.

Home values ​​rose 0.5% last month to hit a national record. Last year, real estate prices rose 5.3% and the median value of Australian homes was $835,000.

Sydney remains the most expensive city in the country to buy homes, followed by Perth and Brisbane. Darwin, Brisbane and Perth are the capitals, with the largest price increase in the past 12 months.

The market is expected to occupy

1.14pm

After the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its June quarterly national account data, market expectations gradually declined in the second half of this month, with significant diving following the release of national account data in the June quarter.

Although economic growth is slightly higher than economists’ expectations, data confirms that 2024-25 is Australia’s weakest growth year since the early 1990s, excluding Covid.

The likelihood of daily cuts has been declining since September 17, with the Australian Stock Exchange’s Australian reserve ratio indicator showing that 96% of the market expecting banks to cut today.

Read more: Reveal: Surprising Australians expect RBA tax rates to drop today

Treasurer has confidence in inflation

1.02pm

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he remains confident in the country’s inflation outlook despite observing an August rise.

“Monthly inflation figures may be volatile and not as reliable as quarterly figures,” he said. “The progress in inflation has tripled confidence in Australia’s reserves.

“Although the global economy increases volatility, basic inflation remains within the RBA’s target range, a promising result for periods of uncertainty. These results are rising inflation rates in parts of the world, including the United States, Canada and New Zealand, and remain stubbornly high in places like the UK.”

RBA warns the economy at ‘risk’

12.47 pm

The cash rate decision this afternoon was a week after Royal Australian National Issues Governor Michele Bullock appeared in Canberra before the Standing Committee of the House Economic Committee.

Ms. Brock is basically positive when reviewing Australia’s progress in curbing high inflation and the country’s progress in periods of gradually reducing inflation. Still, she suggested that the board’s perception of the Australian economy is undermining the “the further we look to the future”.

These comments come after the ongoing international market volatility behind geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, and the consequences of the introduction of global tariffs in the United States.

Read more: The Australian economy is in danger despite its strength, RBA says

Cut, hold, cut, hold, cut…?

12.29 pm

September is seven months since the Royal National Yiji note began its first cutting cycle in more than four years.

Banks have questions between keeping cash rates stable and cutting cash due to welcome relief from homeowners and borrowers in Australia. Cuts in February, May and August spread tax rates at rates in April and July.

While it feels like the situation may be slower than expected earlier this year, the approach is in line with the RBA’s plan to gradually provide relief as inflation eases.

Based on this model, we have to put aside…but RBA does not make decisions based on the model.

Inflation raises attention

12:13 pm

Last week’s latest monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator showed that the title inflation jumped to 3.0% in August. This is the top of the target range of Real Madrid that has been struggling to maintain inflation since Covid.

While the bank has been expecting title inflation to match the electricity discount, the latest data marks the highest annual inflation rate in 13 months.

The bank’s preferred figure is pruned average inflation, thus eliminating the effects of one-time and volatile price movements. It rose slightly to 2.7% in August, but is still on target.

Read more: RBC’s interest rate hike on cards after inflation shock

Welcome to our live blog

12.01pm

Thank you for joining us today for our live coverage on the next cash rate decision for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is expected to be at 2:30 pm.

We will bring you all the latest forecasts and updates in the afternoon, while we wait to hear that cash rates will remain at 3.60% this year or the fourth time this year.

If the 0.25% cut is reconfirmed, this will result in Australia’s lowest interest rate since the beginning of 2023. It will also mark the highest Australian drop rate that Australia will see in a calendar year since 2012.