Greater risk of conflict as Iran-Israel ceasefire may collapse

Don’t hold your breath. President Donald J. Trump’s silence on Iran and Israeli guns is fragile at best. Trump spoke at a press conference on the spacing of the NATO summit. “Can it start over? I think it will be fine soon,” Trump said.

The vulnerability is built into the pause of hostilities from the outset, first of all, whether the stop constitutes a ceasefire. Iran rejected the concept of a ceasefire, even if it agreed to stop hostilities. Iran insisted from the first day of the Israeli attack that it would only stop retaliating against the Israeli strike once Israel stopped the attack.

The most vulnerable ceasefire

As far as Tehran is concerned, this is what Iran has taken to respond to Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s move to stop hostilities. “As Iran has repeatedly made it clear, Israel has launched a war against Iran, not the other way around. There is no “deal” for any ceasefire so far,” said Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on X.

“But, the premise is that the Israeli regime has blocked illegal aggression against the Iranian people…we have no intention of continuing our response later.” Even so, the Iranian missiles fired in Israel a few minutes after the hostilities came into effect, Israel destroyed a radar in northern Iran to show the vulnerability of the stop and aroused Trump’s anger.

Netanyahu succumbed to Trump’s demand for Israel to tie itself, calling on Israeli fighter planes to target other Iranian targets.

The outbreak of Trump’s anger shows that the president can violate the extent of the ceasefire by taking a random strike in case Iran raises his head, for example, attempting to rebuild its nuclear program or supplement its missile arsenal.

Israel has been insisting that despite a November 2024 ceasefire with Iran-backed Shia Muslim militia and Syria’s Hezbollah, it has the right to strike if Lebanon is necessary.

“For Israel, you have to sit down and watch because some targets seem to be going on strike, but it’s impossible right now,” said Michael Singh, a former senior director of Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council.

“Perhaps when Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program, they have to pay attention. Now, they have to put forward a lot of trust and hope in the United States in order to be able to reach some kind of diplomatic agreement to retain the benefits you have made in the military,” Singh added.

Singer puts his finger on his pulse and Iran is determined to rebuild its nuclear program and may still have 410 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity. If further enriched, uranium would be enough to accommodate nine nuclear warheads.

To be sure, despite the questioning of the extent of damage and the whereabouts of highly enriched uranium, the U.S. and Israel attacks have caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. If further enriched, uranium would be enough to accommodate nine nuclear warheads.

In addition, it is unclear to what extent the strikes of the United States and Israel hinder Iran’s abundant capacity and whether it abandons Iran’s desire to enrich the 410 kilograms further. Iran has always denied its desire to possess nuclear weapons. The initial assessment of the U.S. defense intelligence agency was denounced by the White House as a “unification error” and concluded that the U.S. strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities did not undermine the core component of the country’s nuclear program and would likely be withdrawn only a few months ago.

Iran failed, but no

Even so, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaie. Acknowledging that the strikes between the United States and Israel “has seriously damaged the country’s nuclear program.” That’s for sure. Rebuild deterrence.

Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) may inspire those who advocate the development of nuclear weapons.

Intensifying concerns that Iran might choose to develop nuclear weapons, the Iranian parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear regulator. The bill must be approved by Iran’s non-elected guardianship committee to become law and stipulates that future IAEA inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites will require approval from the Supreme National Security Council.

Baghaei said the bill “talks about suspension rather than ending cooperation.” A spokesman said the resumption of cooperation would depend on the IAEA recognition of Iran’s “inalienable rights” of Iran, including the right to enrich uranium, up to 3.67%, and guarantees “safety and security” in the country’s nuclear sites and scientific community.

In addition to the damage caused to the nuclear facilities by Israel, Israel also said it killed 14 Iranian nuclear scientists during the 12-day war. These killings will inevitably be dissatisfied in Tehran. The fact that further threatens the sustainability of the cessation of hostilities is that Iran’s resistance axis may be reduced, but it is not.

A senior political official from Yemen’s Houthi radical group said they were not bound by hostilities between Israel and Iran, asserting that they would continue to attack “until the aggression of Gaza against Gaza and the siege was lifted.” Hottis could inspire the collapse of the ceasefire by targeting international transportation of the U.S. Navy and Gulf waters.

Likewise, it is difficult to determine to what extent Israel has weakened Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and its ability to supplement it. Nevertheless, Iranian missiles highlight the weaknesses of Israel’s air defense measures, causing significant damage when they evade multi-layer bulletproof systems.

Similarly, Israel attacked several non-nuclear program targets in Iran, including police, cyber police, Basil-Iran militia, the headquarters of the State Television and Red Crescent, the entrance to Trenland’s infamous Evan Prison, the power grid in the northern Iranian capital, and the power grid in the northern Iranian capital, as well as the bush and bush centers for gas processing facilities and gas processing.

The strikes show that Israel has the ability to hit its fantasy, including potentially significant impacts on the power held by Iranian rulers and its targets for its intelligence penetration. Iran has charged with espionage for Israel after executing three more people this week. Iran allegedly arrested 700 people on suspicion of cooperation with Israel. So far, it seems that there is no threat to the Iranian regime’s control over power.

Israel’s overwhelming principle is unlikely to work

The strike followed a long Israeli model that operated on the principle that sledgehammers and overwhelming forces would bring the opponents to surrender. For decades, this has been a model applied to Palestinians and has failed to produce results. So far, there is no indication that this approach is still working in Iran despite the cover-up statements by Trump and Mr. Netanyahu.

The cessation of hostilities may remain vulnerable, even if this led to a recovery in U.S.-Iran negotiations, given that there is no indication that Iran would surrender to Trump’s request for Iran to “unconditional (y) surrender” and give up its right to enrich it with 3.67% uranium.

In The Hague, Trump said U.S. and Iranian officials will meet next week, but firmly believe that the U.S. strike has “eliminated” Iran’s nuclear program, downplaying the importance of a formal agreement with the Islamic Republic. In doing so, Trump seems to show that the United States will be difficult in negotiations

“We will talk to Iran next week. We may sign an agreement. I don’t know. For me, I don’t think it’s necessary…I don’t care if we reach an agreement.” The president insists that the United States does not allow Iran to rebuild its nuclear program. “We won’t let this happen,” Trump said.

Trump’s dismissal has exacerbated fears that Israeli-Iran hostilities may be inevitable. The threat of resuming hostilities has intensified due to the lack of any advice Iran agrees to limit its missile plans. Even, Trump seems to have seemed to have said he would not stop China from buying oil from Iran, saying Tehran needs the money to “restore the country back to health.” This little carrot may not be enough.

((A turbulent world First published this article. )

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of fair observers.