China’s view on Trump 2.0

With the re-election of former and future U.S. President Donald Trump, the world’s most important bilateral relations have become even more important. The quiet, stable diplomatic attitude between incumbent President Joe Biden and Beijing will be replaced by a conflict between the two authoritarian leaders, determined to lead one step at each other to seize supreme rule. Tariffs and sledgehammers will once again prove to be Trump’s manipulation tools, while Chinese President Xi Jinping will rely on excellent strategic planning and soft muscle elasticity to promote his agenda and China’s position in the world.

During Trump’s first stay at the White House, the first thing he did was to slap Congress in Congress, while the American public put them in a two-by-quarter manner to ultimately awaken them and realize that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is not a benign force in the world. This time, Trump has the advantage of Congress and the U.S. public almost unify its opposition to the CCP, which should make it easier to increase pressure on Beijing, especially given the Republican clean sweep of the executive and legislative branches.

But Trump’s “Mike Truck subtlety” to foreign policy has a good chance to fight back against U.S. businesses, as many of them continue to feed from Chinese nipples. Despite many Covid-19-related difficulties, the downturn in China’s economy and the crackdown on foreign companies in recent years. They will undoubtedly be heard in the White House when Trump tries to tighten Beijing’s noose.

Trump’s cabinet and other nominations so far provide ample evidence that he intends to burn the place – so why stop at the U.S. border? The foreign policy patch work Biden has tried to complete over the past four years – during which many European governments (especially silently) wonder if the deal with Washington is worth it, and this will be reviewed quickly. A simple foreign policy at its core is nationalism, protectionism and zero-sum approach to participation will surely please friends and enemies.

Is China ready for Trump for four years?

Beijing is surely ready and has prepared countermeasures against the U.S. government and U.S. businesses. Over the next four years, U.S. businesses in China will discover more unpleasant businesses there. As the United States retreats, the CCP may also attempt to strengthen its bilateral relations around the world, and there is no doubt that people will find higher interest, especially in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Peru’s newly formed large port symbolizes how Beijing continues to use its belt and road infrastructure projects to strengthen its economic and diplomatic relations. Trump’s re-election also blends well with Beijing’s self-reliance policy and China’s 2025 policy.

However, Trump’s second term will also affect China’s economic, political and diplomatic discomfort. China’s economy may be much smaller than what official statistics suggest. It costs more and more and less. Much of its natural resources are falling, the labor force is declining, Xi Jinping’s dictatorship has prompted domestic uneasiness, its economy is under growing pressure, and its Asian neighbors have responded to the once shocked by China’s active actions in the region.

China shows classic signs of peak power. Xi Jinping suppressed at home and increased aggressiveness abroad. Military accumulation in peacetime is unprecedented. Moreover, China is more willing to expand its security perimeter and strengthen its alliance with the world’s most abominable regime.

The Chinese word in crisis (wēijī) contains characters that represent danger (hazardous) and opportunity (opportunity), while Trump 2.0 represents both. Xi Jinping will hope to use the next four years to highlight many of China’s domestic challenges and re-emphasize its growing position in the world. If people envision the cessation of the Ukrainian and Israel/Gaza/Lebanon/Iran war in 2025, Xi Jinping will feel that he has a greater latitude that can further strengthen China’s relations with Russia, Iran and Israel. Likewise, he may feel more daring to introduce new initiatives to bring China into acquaintance with broader governments in less-progressive areas, such as regards climate change and mitigation of natural disasters.

It seems doubtful that Trump will choose to embrace areas where possible cooperation with China is possible, but we can expect broader competition and increased potential for conflict. Trump’s presidency will coincide with 2027 – Xi Jinping is the year when Chinese troops prepare to invade Taiwan. Trump will likely have some sort of deal with Xi Jinping (because he is so transaction-oriented) that, essentially, Tiffany ceded Beijing to Beijing in exchange for the substantive nature of the United States. One can only speculate on what might be, but what seemed impossible a few years ago seemed increasingly possible, even if it was impossible now.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of fair observers.