Can diplomacy rise from the ruins?

On November 26, Israel and Lebanon signed a 60-day truce agreement. During this time, Israeli and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah should withdraw from the Lebanese region south of the Litani River.

The agreement is based on the provisions of UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended its previous Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2006. The armistice will consist of 5,000 to 10,000 Lebanese troops and 10,000 United Nations interim forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) (which has operated in the region since 1978) and peacekeeping forces including 46 countries, including 46 countries.

There is extensive international support during the truce, including Hamas leaders in Iran and Gaza. Israel and Hezbollah are clearly happy to get out of a war that backfired on both of them. Effective resistance has prevented Israeli forces from entering Lebanon far, and they are causing meaningless death and destruction to civilians, just like in Gaza, but without the genocide motives of the movement.

People across Lebanon welcome Israeli bombings, destroying their towns and communities, and thousands of casualties. In Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, people have begun to return home.

In the south, the Israeli military warned residents on both sides of the border not to return. It announced a new buffer zone (which is not part of the truce agreement) that includes 60 villages north of the border and warned it would attack Lebanese civilians returning to the area. Despite these warnings, thousands of displaced people have been back in southern Lebanon, often finding their own houses and villages in the ruins.

Many people returning to the South are still proud to show Hezbollah’s yellow flag. The flag flying over the ruins of the Lebanese city of Tire reads “Made in America”. This reminds people that the Lebanese people are very familiar with killing and maiming thousands of bombs.

The success of the truce seems unlikely

There have been many reports of ceasefire violations. Shortly after the truce came into effect, Israel shot and killed two journalists. Two days after the ceasefire began, Israel attacked five towns near the border, with tanks (Tank) opening fires on the border and air strikes in southern Lebanon. On December 2, as UN peacekeepers told CNN that Israel had violated the truce “about a hundred times”, Hezbollah finally retaliated against mortar shootings in the controversial Shaba Farm area. Israel’s strikes against the two villages were severe, killing 11 people.

Whenever Hezbollah is believed to be violating a truce, it grants Israel the right to ratify Israel’s strike, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls “complete freedom of military action”, which makes it a kind of unstable and peaceful peace.

Within 60 days, the prospect of both Israel and Hezbollah being completely withdrawn from Israel and Hezbollah seems to be small. Hezbollah has built large weapons stocks in the south and it does not want to give up. Netanyahu himself warned that the truce “may be short.”

Then there was a danger of confrontation between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army, which increased the ghost of the bloody civil war in Lebanon, which caused an estimated 150,000 people between 1975 and 1990.

Thus, violence can re-emerge the full war at any time, making it unlikely that many Israelis will return to houses near the border with Lebanon, the purpose of the war that Israel initially stated publicly.

The truce agreement was facilitated by the United States and France and was signed by the EU, Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. France was Lebanon’s colonial power and still played a leading role in unification, but Israel initially rejected France as a negotiating partner. It seems that the role of France will be accepted only when the government of French President Emmanuel Macron agreed not to come to France with Netanyahu.

The UK also signed the original armistice proposal on November 25, but it appears that there is no final agreement. The UK appears to have withdrawn from negotiations under the United States and Israel because unlike France, its new Labor government has publicly stated that it will comply with an ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Garrant. However, it did not make it clear that it would arrest them.

Netanyahu said it would allow Israeli forces to focus on Gaza and Iran, and only stubborn “security” minister Itama Ben-Gvir voted against the armistice in Israel’s cabinet, which would defend his own people.

Although the hope that the truce in Lebanon would lay the foundation for a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel’s actions on the ground tell a different story. Satellite images show Israel has carried out new massive demolition of hundreds of buildings in northern Gaza to build a new road or border between the city of Gaza and Northern Canada. This could be a new border that separates 17% of Gaza’s northernmost end from the rest of the Gaza Strip, so Israel could expel its people and stop them from returning, hand over Gaza in Northern Canada to Israeli settlers, and squeeze desperate survivors into smaller areas than before.

Syria complicates conflict

For all those who hoped that a ceasefire in Lebanon could lead to a regional relegation, these hopes were shattered in Syria, when, on the day of the truce, the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a surprise attack. HTS was previously Al-Nusra Front associated with Al Qaeda. It renamed its brand in 2016 and cut off formal ties with Al Qaeda to avoid becoming a major U.S. target in the Syrian war, but the U.S. still labeled it as a terrorist organization.

By December 1, HTS managed to control the control of Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo, forcing Syrian Arab troops and their Russian allies to defence. As Russian and Syrian jets bomb rebels-controlled territory, the surge in combat has raised the prospect of another violent, unstable frontline reopening in the Middle East.

This may also be the prelude to the Israeli attack on Syria, which has attacked Syria more than 220 times since October 2023, killing at least 296 people by Israel’s air strikes and shelling bombs.

The new HTS offense is likely to mask U.S. support and could affect reports of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump intends to withdraw 900 U.S. troops still in Syria. It may also affect his nomination for Tulsi Gabbard as head of national intelligence. Gabbard is a long-standing U.S. criticism of Al-Qaeda’s support for a faction linked to Al-Qaeda in Syria, so the new HTS offense lays the foundation for an explosive confirmation hearing that could backfire if the Gabbard case is allowed to be filed.

Arab and Muslim national strategies

Elsewhere in the region, Israel’s genocide in Gaza and wars in neighboring countries have led to widespread anti-Israeli and anti-U.S. resistance.

Where the United States was once able to buy Arab rulers through arms deals and military alliances, the Arab and Muslim worlds are centering around a position that considers Israel’s actions unacceptable and that Iran is a threatened neighbor rather than an enemy. The unconditional support of the United States for Israel has the potential to permanently relegate U.S. relations with former allies, from Iraq, Jordan and Egypt to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Yemen’s Ansar Allah (or the Houthi) government blocked the Red Sea, using missiles and drones to Israel’s ties to the port of Eilat or the Suez Canal. Yemen has defeated a U.S.-led naval task force to break the blockade and reduce transportation by at least two-thirds through the Suez Canal, forcing shipping companies to bypass most ships in Africa. The port of Eilat filed for bankruptcy in July, with only one ship docking there in a few months.

Other resistance forces attacked U.S. military bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, and U.S. troops retaliated in the low-level tat war. The Iraqi government strongly condemns us and Israel’s attack on the soil for violating its sovereignty. Attacks on Iraq and Syrian bases have erupted again in recent months, and Iraqi resistance forces have launched drone attacks on Israel.

An emergency meeting held by the Arab League in Cairo, Egypt on November 26 unanimously voted for Iraq and condemned the Israeli threat. U.S.-Iraq has developed a plan in September for hundreds of U.S. troops to leave Iraq in 2025 and disappear within two years. The United States has surpassed previous withdrawal plans, but these very unpopular U.S. base days must be numbered.

The latest meeting of Arab and Muslim countries revolves around proposals to reject the normalization of U.S. relations with Israel and new solidarity with Palestine and Iran. At the Islamic State Conference in Riyadh on November 11, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salman publicly called the Israeli massacre in Gaza for the first time.

Arab and Muslim countries know that Trump may take unpredictable actions and they need a stable shared position to avoid becoming a pawn for him or Netanyahu. They recognize that previous differences have made them vulnerable to exploitation by us and Israel, which has led to the current Palestinian crisis and the risk of major regional wars, and now has caused their crisis.

Saudi Arabia has abandoned its new military alliance with the United States, including normalizing relations with Israel, officials from Saudi Arabia told Reuters on November 29. It chose a more limited U.S. arms deal.

The Saudis had hoped to reach a treaty that included the United States defending their commitments, such as a treaty with Japan and South Korea. This will require confirmation from the U.S. Senate, which will require Saudi approval of Israel. But if there is no viable Palestinian national plan, the Saudis no longer consider recognizing Israel, which Israel refuses.

On the other hand, Saudi relations with Iran are steadily improving as they restored relations 18 months ago with diplomatic help from China and Iraq. On October 3, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan announced in Qatar during a meeting with new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is in Qatar: “We are trying to close the pages of differences between the two countries forever and work to address our problems and relations such as the two friendly and fraternal states and expand our relationship.”

Prince Faisal stressed the “very sensitive and critical” situation in the region as Israel’s “aggression” against Gaza and Lebanon and its efforts to expand the conflict. He said Saudi Arabia trusts Iran’s “wisdom and discernment” in managing the situation to restore peace and peace.

The ball is in Trump’s court

If Saudi Arabia and its neighbors could be peaceful with Iran, what would the consequences of the illegal, genocidal occupation of Palestine against Israel, activated and encouraged by decades of U.S. military and diplomatic support?

On December 2, Trump wrote in “Society of Truth” that if the hostages were not released at the inauguration ceremony, then “there was all hell in the Middle East.” He warned: “Those responsible will be hit more than any hits in the long and legendary history of the United States of America.”

Trump and many of his aides embody the West’s arrogance and desire for the imperial power at the root of the crisis. More threats and more destruction are not the answer. Trump has a good relationship with the dictator of the Gulf nation, and he has a lot in common with him. If he is willing to listen, he will realize, as they do, that there is no solution for the Palestinian people in his own land. If he wants, it is the path to peace.

((Lee Thompson-Kolar Edited this. )

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of fair observers.