Bitcoin’s elasticity test is tariffs and macroeconomic pressures drive market volatility

After years of trade stability, a rapid transformation took place in 2025. President Trump quickly issued a wide range of import tariffs targeting specific countries and industries, using emergency powers.

Therefore, the latest report from Binance Research points out that if inflation remains high and economic growth slows down, then the Fed’s actions are crucial to shaping market outcomes.

Bitcoin has the potential to reaffirm independence

New trade tariffs under President Trump’s administration significantly impact the relevance of Bitcoin, providing new insights into its behavior during macroeconomic pressures. Initially, with the trade war rhetoric in January 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks became negative.

This is obvious that the 30-day correlation dropped to -0.32 from February 20 to February 20.

On the other hand, cryptocurrencies’ correlation with gold has dropped significantly and turned negative as BTC’s behavior becomes increasingly consistent with broader risk sentiment. This shift describes the growing impact of macroeconomic factors, such as the impact of trade policies and interest rate expectations on the cryptocurrency market.

While Bitcoin is clearly aligned with traditional markets in the short term, Binance’s report emphasizes that cryptocurrencies remain unique in their identity in the long run. Over the past few years, BTC’s correlation with stocks (~0.32) and gold (~0.12) has fluctuated, but has not been continuously aligned in depth, indicating its role as a separate asset class.

Recent market reactions to trade policy shocks have revealed BTC’s resilience as it remains stable and even rebounds during the days when traditional risky assets are faltering. In addition, long-term holders maintain a stable supply of crypto assets, which demonstrates a strong belief in its value even during high volatility. This behavior is seen as a sign of the potential of Bitcoin to re-identify itself as a safe haven asset, especially during times of economic uncertainty.

Research shows that Bitcoin’s future trajectory depends on its ability to restore its historical patterns associated with low stocks, as shown by past crises such as bank turmoil in 2023. Binance’s research highlights that if BTC can re-identify itself as a safe haven asset, especially in a global economy marked by protectionism and uncertainty, it can regain its status as a non-supervised, inflationary asset.

This would be particularly important if global monetary policy changes, such as a potential Fed rate drop, which is associated with a higher inflation rate, which could see Bitcoin as an attractive store of value.

The Fed’s response to Bitcoin’s future key

Looking ahead, the broader cryptocurrency market faces major challenges in a shaky trade protectionist environment. Trade policy, inflation data and central bank actions are some of the key factors that affect the future of crypto markets.

A protracted trade war may weaken investor sentiment, but any sign of easy or favorable regulatory developments in central banks can provide a boost. The Binance report expects the crypto market to remain volatile and ranged until global conditions are stable.

“If macro conditions are stable, new narratives will continue, or cryptocurrencies use it as a long-term hedge – which may be followed by growth. Until then, the market may maintain scope boundaries and react to macro titles.”