Bitcoin’s $125K record is a U.S. government shutdown, macro factors: analysts

Bitcoin violated new all-time highs over the weekend, prompting analysts to call for a new accumulation phase that could rise to $150,000 by the end of the year.

Cointelegraph reported earlier Sunday that Bitcoin (BTC) put its all-time high new all-time high above $125,700, with its market cap crossing a $2.5 trillion milestone for the first time in crypto history.

The rally was backed by several macroeconomic factors, including the recent U.S. government shutdown (the first shutdown since 2018), which some analysts say has sparked interest in the Bitcoin value store role.

Fabian Dori, chief investment officer of Sygnum Bank, a digital asset banking group, said similar conditions have led to “main price milestones.”

Dori told Cointelegraph that the U.S. government shutdown “re-discusses the role of Bitcoin’s store of value as political dysfunction emphasizes interest in decentralized assets.” He added: “At the same time, the wider environment (with loose liquidity conditions, service-led acceleration in the business cycle and poor performance relative to stocks and gold) has attracted attention to digital assets.”

But Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph that the headwind effects of the government shutdown on cryptocurrency markets will ultimately depend on how it affects the Fed’s perception of interest rate decisions.

Kenneth added: “It could benefit if the cryptocurrency market reduces uncertainty and takes the Fed to a more difficult position.”

While some analysts call the government shutdown a signal that the underlying cryptocurrency market is potentially a signal, Kenneth said, “it is too early to call it a local market bottom,” as confirmation will require “multiple weeks of stability above key support levels.”

Related: Bitcoin ETFS launches “UPTOBER” to $3.2B in the second-highest week

Bitcoin enters a new accumulation stage

Some analysts view Bitcoin’s recent growth as a sign of a new accumulation phase for large entities, as OnChain data suggests that sales pressure for whales is declining.

“Market data suggest that current price action may be related to the cumulative phase,” said Dori of Sygnym Bank.

“Sales pressure for long-term holders appears to be easing, while short-term investors show signs of stability after a period of loss.”

He added that the period of “cooling speculative activity and stabilizing positioning” has historically conducted a large number of Bitcoin rallies.

Related: CZ Post sends Memecoin Soaring, crypto traders turn $3K into $2 million

Meanwhile, according to data from blockchain data platform GlassNode, Bitcoin’s open interest after the expiration of options last week was “sharply reset”, which could be the “setting stage” for the fourth quarter.

Slowing speculation may draw more attention to Bitcoin, with analyst forecasts breaking through to $150,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, with Charles Edwards saying Cointelegraph in Token2049.

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Magazine: Bitcoin wants to see “another big push” to $150k, ETH pressure build