Key points:
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If the price exceeds $115,000 to liquidate short positions over $7 billion, Bitcoin could turn into a parabola.
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The OnChain indicator enters overheated territory, which indicates an extended earnings for BTC investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on May 27, briefly tagging $110,700 after the strong U.S. stock market opened, and Trump Media and Technology Group announced it would raise $2.5 billion for the Bitcoin Treasury Department.
As Ecometrics notes, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is consistent with the U.S. financial situation. Bitcoin Communications, which focuses on the macroeconomic, emphasized that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) quickly moved to ultra-floating territory after the austerity phase in February 2025.
NFCI, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tracks pressure in the financial system by aggregating measures such as credit spreads, leverage and funding conditions. When the index enters looser territory, it reflects conditions that are easier to obtain capital and reduce market pressure, which often encourage investors to take risks.
For high beta assets like Bitcoin, these periods often coincide with price rallies in capital flowing into speculative markets.
Ecometrics notes that within four weeks, liquidity has recovered, creating a supportive macroeconomic environment for risky assets like Bitcoin. The newsletter states that
“That’s the macro backdrop for Bitcoin’s thriving. The Bitcoin rallies to new highs are not nothing. It’s tracking the same pattern we’ve seen since 2023: Easy Conditions → Capital Rotation → Risk-Risk.”
Just 2% from Bitcoin’s all-time high price, Coinglass’ data suggests that the possibility of short distances remains high due to the huge liquidity of seller liquidity. As shown below, if Bitcoin violates $115,000, short positions over $7 billion may be liquidated, triggering a cascading effect that increases prices.
Related: Bitcoin shows signs of “loose momentum” but traders still expect $150K
OnChain data shows Bitcoin in “overheating zone”
While overall momentum remains bullish, Bitcoin rally pushes the market to areas where historical patterns urge cautiousness. The flashing signal of two key OnChain indicators (supplied in the profit market band and advanced net UTXO supply rate) is consistent with previous market tops.
Supply indicators for the profit market band track how many shares in the current cycle of BTC supply are profitable. As of late May 2025, this number has soared to 19.4 million BTC, approaching the historical extreme and entering the “overheating zone”. Previously, BTC price tested the area on December 17, 2025, followed by a $107,000 price correction to $93,000.
Meanwhile, the advanced net UTXO supply rate (NUSR) comparing profitable versus unprofitable UTXO (no transaction output required) is brushing its historic ceiling, which is at a historical ceiling around 0.95, usually at the level before the sell signal. The red mark on the chart indicates a prior instance of such conditions that lead to a rise in local prices or prolonged mergers.
The above data cannot guarantee an immediate decline, but these indicators indicate that volatility and profitability are high in the short term.
Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference triggers a 30% price crash – Can the Bulls escape this year?
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.