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Bitcoin started a strong rally in the fourth quarter of 2025, soaring more than 10% over the past week, from around $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 today.
But, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at the Standard Charter, said Bitcoin could rise to a fresh climax if the U.S. government shuts down.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s historic positive correlation with the U.S. fiscal maturity premium suggests that cryptocurrencies may benefit from long-term fiscal uncertainty.
Kendrick notes that Bitcoin has historically shown significant resilience amid long-term market pressures (often favoring assets with digital scarcity). In this case, the extended pressure comes from the expanded closure of the U.S. government.
Standard Chartered’s forecast now sets Bitcoin at $135,000 and the year-end forecast is $200,000, indicating strong confidence in the token’s upward potential.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $122,200, well below its August $124,480.
Bitcoin is ready to attend the rally
The potential of the U.S. government shutdown adds another layer of market uncertainty, often affecting stocks and fixed income tools.
For Bitcoin, these conditions can act as catalysts, thereby enhancing its hedging against traditional market volatility.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in recent months, but major liquidity indicators indicate a possible breakthrough. Global M2 growth, Stablecoin supply trends and Gold’s rally (Bitcoin is all tracked with a 40-day lag – all pointing upward.
JPMorgan analysts also believe that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold, and if “depreciating trade” (investment assets that hedge against the risk of fiat currency) continues, the estimates are theoretically rising to $165,000.
With a September closing at $114,000, the historical model improved by about 5%, and was supported by retail and institutional interest in retail and institutional interests in retail and Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.
Data show that in several years like 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, the positive end of September followed by the fourth quarter rally, with an average distance of more than 50%.