Bitcoin keeps breaking records, but each halving cycle brings smaller gains

Rewards fell during the heavy lifting period, but companies like Strategy kept accumulating bitcoin while miners strengthened cybersecurity.

Bitcoin (BTC)’s historical price trajectory highlights a clear pattern. After each halving, assets have always climbed to new highs, but the returns have decreased.

In fact, new research shows: “Since the second halving, the extent of price increases after the preparation has been compressed over time.”

Rewards shrink rapidly

Since 2012, the speed of new Bitcoins that have slowed into circulation has been cut from 25 BTC to the current 3.125 BTC. This exacerbates the scarce narrative that has long supported the upward momentum. During this period, Bitcoin’s value soared more than 9,110 times, reaching $109,000 on September 1, 2025. One month later, cryptocurrency assets rose by more than $120,000.

Nevertheless, Coingecko said the return after the memo is gradually weakening. The peak growth rate of the second halving cycle in 2017 was 29 times, with the 2021 cycle down to 6.7 times, while the latest 2025 runs increased by a relatively small 93.1%.

Interestingly, the pace of the cycle changed when Bitcoin hit a record $73,400 in March 2024 (before the fourth halving challenged historical expectations). Meanwhile, market activity has exploded, which proves that daily trading volumes have increased from about $20 million in 2013 to nearly $30 billion in 2025.

This has not stopped publicly listed companies from increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset. As of October 3, nearly 200 listed companies held 1,040,061 BTC, which is almost 5% of the total BTC supply. The strategy leads with 640,031 BTC. This accounts for 63.2% of all companies holding Bitcoin and added 4,048 BTC on September 2, according to data compiled by Bitcoin Treasury.

Several new companies are taking major actions toward Bitcoin. Since May, support from Tether, Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald and Softbank are supported by Tether, Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald and Softbank. It is now the third largest company holder. Meanwhile, the U.S.-based healthcare company has expanded its holdings through a merger with Nakamoto BTC Holdings and added 5,765 BTC. It also announced plans to raise $5 billion for treasury growth.

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Internationally, organizations such as Japan’s Metaplanet and European Treasury BV are building a considerable bitcoin treasury, with the Treasury’s BV raising $147 million to acquire more than 1,000 BTC.

Bitcoin’s backbone enhancement

Despite rising institutional holdings, the network itself has significantly expanded in terms of computing power. The mining hash rate of the Bitcoin network has been on a steady upward trajectory as the participation of various miners and institutional participants has been growing. In the past year alone, the hash rate has surged 88%, from 670 million TH/S to 1.266 ZH/s.

Under the Trump administration, the U.S. mining ecosystem has expanded, partly relocated to the U.S. by Chinese mining hardware manufacturers such as Bitmain, Canaan and Microbt, which is stimulated by tariffs and regulatory pressures.

Meanwhile, domestic companies including Hive, Hut 8, Marathon and CleanSpark are increasingly prioritizing alternative energy sources for new facilities. Eric Trump recently co-founded American Bitcoin Corp, which debuted on Nasdaq.