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This summer, the magazine uprising in Epstein’s archives put forward the long-term assumption that President Trump has an indestructible bond with the Republican base. Trump loyalists from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to Steve Bannon to Tucker Carlson recently criticized the president for not only on Epstein disclosures, but also Medicaid in “a large bill.”
However, new polls suggest another issue could lose Trump’s important support and significantly reduce his position among the independent voters Republicans need to win future elections.
Republicans have largely rally around Trump after the June 22 explosion of Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the YouGov vote commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research shows that the president and his party are at great political risk if they support a war involving Israel and Iran.
Trump faces overwhelming dissent from independents when respondents consider the economic consequences of a wider conflict and their trust in the reasons for participating in the war. These voters make up about one-third of voters and are currently evenly distributed between Democrats and tilted Republicans. If a problem becomes important in an election and independent voters move strongly in one direction, then the election can be waving.
The obvious majority of voters (65%) reported that gasoline prices rose to $6 per gallon due to the expansion of U.S. military participation, and they would put Trump in charge. Among independent voters, this sentiment rose to 69%. Additionally, when learned that economists expect mortgage rates to rise sharply, this is due to the widening conflict – potentially increasing the $100,000 lifetime payments for typical homes – 72% opposed U.S. military participation, with two-thirds representing a “strong” opposition.
Most polls view foreign policy decisions as isolated incidents, simply asking voters whether they support or oppose military action. However, major interventions are not conducted in isolation – they affect gasoline prices, mortgage rates, and overall confidence in politicians and their parties. A true measure of public sentiment that expands military participation must explain these potentials and even possible consequences, which often drives voter attitudes toward more than abstract strategic considerations.
Donald Trump has declined trust in institutions by highlighting the decline in Americans, from government regulators and health experts to traditional media. But the polls show that Trump himself faces serious charges from his base that violate public trust and impoverished donors, claiming unconditional support for Israeli policies that millions of voters consider to be wrong and dangerous.
63% of respondents expressed concern that Trump’s decision to attack Iran could be affected by major campaign donors, especially among independents. Two-thirds of voters, including nearly one-third of Republicans, believe that the intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict is inconsistent with Trump’s core “America First” commitment.
In June, Tucker Carlson accused Trump of being accomplice of acts of war after Israel launched an attack on Iran, and influential magazine voices such as Steve Bannon echoed similar skepticism. However, comments alone are unlikely to change conservative public opinion. People cope with the tangible impact in life. If Trump follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again to take major military action in the Middle East, the consequences could go beyond geopolitics and significantly impact the presidential party in next year’s midterm elections.
Consider some mid-term math. Voters identified as Republican or Democrats overwhelmingly align with their respective parties on all five issues related to U.S. intervention in Iran. For example, at a ratio of 88% to 12%, Democrats say they don’t think “Trump is involved in this war for the sake of American national security.” Republicans hold the opposite view, with 77% saying national security is the cause, while 23% don’t believe it. This makes independent voters decisive.
According to current poll data, independents are evenly distributed between “Republican tendencies” and “Democratic tendencies,” often indicating a national election. However, the independents strongly opposed it with a 2-1 profit on the question of our participation in the war with Iran. This led to the overall result of 63-37, saying they do not think that we are involved in such wars “for national security purposes.”
Although the June war between Israel and Iran seems to have ended, another Israeli attack remains likely in the near future. If Trump decides to join such an action before the next election, it could significantly undermine the Republican opportunity.
Mark WeisbrotyesCenter for Economic and Policy Research. He is the author of “Failure: ‘Experts’’ Global Economy’s Mistakes (Oxford University Press). Justin Talbot ZornyesCenter for Economic and Policy ResearchTruman National Security Fellow and serves as legislative director for three members of Congress.