Is this a real Ukrainian turnaround for Donald Trump? |Global Agora

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question:

1. I know it’s very difficult to predict anything with Donald Trump, but would you say we’re witnessing a real (at least partly) turnaround in his approach to Russia and Ukraine?

2. What are your expectations for Russia now? Does Vladimir Purin care about the 50-day final pass?

Answer:

Thomas Schwartz,,,,, Professor of History and Political Science, Vanderbilt University

1. Yes, I think Trump’s thinking about Ukraine has changed. His positive view of Putin seems to be shaken, and even Melania is now skeptical of Putin’s motives. This is not clear, but interestingly, 85 senators have signed a bipartisan bill that would allow the president to have 500% tariffs on countries such as China, India and Brazil that are still dealing with Russia. Besides some people on the edge of Maga like Tucker Carlson, there is a lot of support for Ukraine at home. Trump said he still doesn’t want to call Putin a “assassin”, but at least he recognizes Putin’s cruelty.

2. I hope Putin intensifies the war in the next 49 days, trying to acquire as much territory as possible and cause as much pain as possible. Then, on day 50, he said he had seen the light and wanted a ceasefire. Will Trump fall into depravity for this? I hope I don’t want it, but I won’t bet on him. Trump still seems to feel that Russian leaders can be redeemed. So, I hope Putin will try again.

Paul D’Anieri,,,,, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of California, Riverside

1. It is unwise to put too much inventory on anything Donald Trump says, or to forget that he changes his mind frequently. With this in mind, it appears that he has revised his understanding of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Although he had previously tended to believe that Russia prioritized peace over conquest of Ukraine, he seemed to have realized that Putin did not desire peace and that Trump’s efforts to interact with him failed. Among the governments that have long supported Ukraine, it seems likely that those in the government have gained some foundation in Pro-Putin’s voice.

2. I don’t want Putin to change the course based on Trump’s recent trigger. Putin believes that Russia has the will and ability to stay in this war indefinitely, and the West will not provide Ukraine with the support it needs more than Russia needs. Only one reliable long-term commitment to help Ukraine deny Russia’s victory could convince Putin to pursue peace rather than victory.

Mitchell Orenstein,,,,, Professor of Russian and Eastern European Studies at the University of Pennsylvania.

1. I was initially skeptical of Trump’s turnaround attitude, but it was true. My explanation for his complex and unpredictable behavior is that at first, Trump attempted to reach a peace deal with Russia after his inauguration in January. He seems to think he can achieve this mainly by talking to Putin, who he thinks he has a special relationship. This approach fails with several wrong assumptions: 1. Ukraine has no say in this matter, 2. The EU has no say in this matter, 3. Putin trusted him and wanted to reach an agreement with him.

Finally, about six months later, Trump realized that he was being played by Putin, with Ukraine and the EU being the real participants in any peace negotiations. Furthermore, it may be necessary to apply coercion to Russia to get Russia on the dining table. Not surprisingly, he believes tariffs will be a good way to put pressure on it. He also seems to believe that it is important to provide Ukraine with air defense weapons. Maybe it’s because he really doesn’t like war and doesn’t want to see people being killed for no reason.

This seems to be someone Trump listens to in his administration. He had a special envoy for Russia: Steve Witkoff, and the other was Ukraine: Keith Kellogg. Putin refused to allow Kellogg to meet him and his side. Vikov failed to reach an agreement. So, now, Trump seems to be listening to Kellogg. Trump has appointed many pro-Russian governments, including Tulsi Gabbard, who appears to be Pete Hegseth. And there are some pro-Ukrainians like Keith Kellogg. This part explains why it is difficult to know what is happening within the government. In my opinion, Trump is based on the decision to learn how to deal with Russia and Putin, as he was clear at a press conference yesterday.

2. I don’t know the last 50-day atum. First, Trump likes deadlines. July 4^Th The deadline gave him a big bill from Congress. 50 days seem odd, but it’s with the end of the summer and maybe Russia’s summer offensive. Maybe he tried to get Europeans to work during August. Perhaps he thinks he will start completing the agreement in the US school year around Labor Day, thus gaining more media coverage. Russia appears to have rejected the deadline. But Trump may think that gives him a chance to force both sides of the issue. Sanctions on Russia will be very serious.

Filed: Politics, Russia, Security, Ukraine, United States, U.S. Foreign Policy | Tags: Donald Trump, Foreign Policy, Politics, Putin War, Russia, Security, Ukraine, Ukrainian War, United States, U.S. Foreign Policy |