Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle

The market value of Bitcoin pairs that realize value or MVRV ratios remains one of the most reliable on-chain indicators to identify local and macro and bottom in each BTC cycle. By isolating data from different investor queues and adjusting historical benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can get a more accurate picture of what will be next.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio

The MVRV ratio compares the market price of Bitcoin with the price it realizes, essentially the average cost basis for all coins in the network. As of this writing, BTC traded around $105,000, while the realized price is close to $47,000, putting the RAW MVRV at 2.26. The Z-score version of MVRV normalizes this ratio based on historical volatility, allowing for clearer comparisons over different market cycles.

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential 1 — *Figure 1: Historically, the MVRV ratio and MVRV Z scores have accurate identified periodic peaks and bottoms.* View real-time charts

Short-term holders

Short-term holders are defined as those who hold Bitcoin for 155 days or less, and currently have a price close to $97,000. This indicator is usually dynamic support for bull markets and resistance in bear markets. It is worth noting that when the short-term holder MVRV reaches 1.33, local tops happen, as seen several times in the 2017 and 2021 cycles. So far, this threshold has been touched four times in the current cycle, each threshold is then moderately traced.

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential 2 — *Figure 2: In the recent cycle, the short-term stent MVRV reached 1.33, consistent with the local top.* View real-time charts

Long-term holder

Long-term holders who hold BTC for more than 155 days currently have an average cost base of just $33,500, with an MVRV of 3.11. Historically, during the major peak period, long-term holders had MVRV values of up to 12. That is, we observe a trend of multiple reductions per cycle.

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential 3 — *Figure 3: Implementing the MVRV value of long-term holders may infer BTC prices of over $300,000.* View real-time charts

Now, a critical resistor band is located between 7.5 and 8.5, a region that has defined the backtests of the bull top and front forging defined in each cycle since 2011. If the current growth of the current realized price ($40/day) continues to last 140-150 days, matching the previous cycle length, then we can see it somewhere at $40,000. The peak MVRV is 8, which means the price is close to $320,000.

Smarter Market Compass

Unlike static historical indicators, this two-year MVRV Z score adapts to evolving market dynamics. By recalculating the average extremes on the scroll window, it can attenuate the natural volatility of Bitcoin. Historically, this version marked too much structure when it exceeded level 3, while the main accumulation area when it fell below -1. Currently, the indicator is currently under 1 year old, indicating that there is still a lot of room for upward growth.

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential 4 — *Figure 4: Current 2-year rolling MVRV Z scores indicate a more positive price action.* View real-time charts

Time and goal

The view of BTC growth due to the low cycle chart shows that BTC is now removed from its last major cycle low for about 925 days. Historical comparisons with previous bull markets suggest we may be about 140 to 150 days away from the potential top, while the peaks in 2017 and 2021 both occur around 1,060 to 1,070 days after their respective lows. Although not deterministic, this comparison enhances a broader understanding of where we are in the cycle. If the realized price trends and MVRV thresholds continue on the current trajectory, the third-quarter to the fourth-quarter late 2025 may bring the ultimate euphoria.

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential 5 — *Figure 5: Will the current cycle continue to show a growth pattern similar to the previous two cycles?* View real-time charts

in conclusion

MVRV ratios and their derivatives remain an important tool for analyzing Bitcoin market behavior, providing obvious markers for accumulation and allocation. Whether it is observing short-term holders hovering near local top thresholds, long-term holders approaching historically important resistance areas, or adaptive indicators such as the large number of runways left over a 2-year rolling MVRV Z-SCORE signal, these data points should be used in confluences.

Single metrics should not be relied on to predict tops or bottoms in isolation, but together they provide a powerful lens to explain macro trends. As the market matures and volatility declines, adaptive indicators will become more important when keeping the curve ahead.

For more in-depth research, technical metrics, real-time market alerts, and access to the growing community of analysts, visit Bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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