Assad is gone, Trump is here: What is the future of Ukraine?

The war can almost end overnight.

Just look at Syria, Syria has been locked in a civil war for more than ten years. Bashar al-Assad survives and seems to be expected to become a lifelong tyrant. Then, over a few weeks his allies effectively abandoned him, his army melted, and he and his family had to town the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin is already in the Kremlin, so if things go south in Russia, this is where he will not be able to escape. Unlike Assad, he did not face the rebel army (at least not yet). But he should still be concerned given Russia’s losses in the battlefield, geopolitics and the economy as a whole.

How long does both Putin and Assad have to leave the town and live in a few shelters, not patriotism like Samuel Johnson insists, but in Pyongyang?

Donald Trump said he would end the war in Ukraine on the first day of his administration, which certainly didn’t mean anything. He is not talking about helping Ukraine reoccupies its occupied territory, prompting the Russian regime to change and exile Putin. That was the ancient Republican Party, it was the core of anti-Russia. The new magazine party’s freedom agenda overlaps with Putin’s, with no foreign policy, but a threatening arsenal.

It is therefore no surprise that Trump’s “project concept” ended the Ukrainian war only included simultaneous threats aimed at pushing both sides to the dining table and stooping a ceasefire. The problem is that Putin is not in a hurry to compromise. Russia, without considering the implications of Assad’s failure, continues to play its advantages in Ukraine. In November, it captured nearly 11 square miles of Ukrainian territory every day.

But the cost of these benefits is huge – a total of 45,000 casualties over the same period. The need to introduce 10,000 North Korean soldiers on the side of Russia suggests that these casualties are causing losses. Other signs of Russian despair include astronomy-high signing bonuses, an empty prison due to the conscripts of the Dragoon, all Indians and Yemen deceived the battle in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Russian economy began to tighten, with inflation exceeding 9%, interest rates exceeding 21%, labor shortages, labor shortages are caused by all young people, exiles or military industries in the army.

Putin soldiers are on top. In his wish list, he wanted to drive Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory captured around Kursk. Next, he hopes for all Luhansk and Donetsk provinces (Russia controls almost all the former, but only about two-thirds of the latter). Putin’s biggest goal is to “demean” the Ukrainian government by installing his own Kremlin-friendly regime and disarming the country to avoid posing any future threat to Russia.

The Ukrainians dug on their heels, hoping that Putin would eventually retreat to save his regime. But even if you hold this line, it becomes increasingly difficult to reoccupy the territory. Ukraine struggles so much about its lack of soldiers that Volodymyr Zelensky has been talking about trading land for peace (plus NATO membership). Such a ceasefire would place the territory (Donbas of Crimea) to the Russians, but Ukraine would retain the right to regain land “diplomacy” (regardless of what that means).

Although Zelensky was willing to compromise on his territory, he did not give up. He received another billion dollars in military aid from the Biden administration because of its attendance. A $50 billion loan is mortgaged on interest on the frozen Russian assets in the west, and the United States has allocated a $20 billion share. To attract enough troops to stop Russia’s progress, the Ukrainian government may consider further reducing the recruitment age.

Trump and his slaves think they can force both sides to compromise on disputed territory. This is a perennial misunderstanding of the U.S. government.

After all, this war is not primarily about territory. It’s about ideology. Putin’s vision has a vision of freedom-freedom that makes Russia the center of a new anti-Western axis that question everything from international law to LGBT rights. Zelensky was incorporated into some uncomfortable position representing Western democratic and human rights values. The Ukrainians have a more fundamental fear: Occupy will throw them into prison, destroy their culture, or execute them in cold blood like they did in Bucha and elsewhere.

Putting Donald Trump into this combination is like bombing in a life-and-death struggle. Perhaps, in the chaos and chaos after the explosion, everyone throws away their weapons.

Or maybe they will just ignore the bomb thrower, pick themselves up, and continue fighting with new energy. Both sides reached the deadlock that the two North Koreans experienced in the last two years of the war. So, don’t bet on the armistice that will take place on January 21, 2025.

Trump’s plan concept

According to Trump, in the world, Russia invaded Ukraine because the United States was weak. Therefore, to resolve this crisis, the United States must be strong again.

That’s the essence of Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg’s plan. The United States will threaten to stop all aid to Ukraine and push it to the negotiations. Then, for Russia, this would have the potential to increase aid to Ukraine to get the Kremlin to negotiate. NATO’s Ukrainian membership will not be on the desktop.

But Putin knows that many Republicans and voters who serve them want the United States to stop sending money to Ukraine under any circumstances. So Putin can safely resist the pressure and sit down and watch the Republicans tear apart on the issue.

Putin also knows what Kellogg really feels. “Wars born in American weakness can only end with American power,” Trump’s Future Envoy wrote in a Senate hearing last year. “That’s why the path to bringing up these negotiations is to enable Ukraine to defeat Ukraine’s Russian army … and provide Ukraine with the military armament it needs (to do so).”

This explains Russia’s reaction to the plan so far. “Kellogg’s plan came to Moscow and we accepted it and told him to screw himself up because we didn’t like it.” Financial Times. “That would be the whole negotiation.”

Russians also know how Trump handles negotiations with the Taliban. The presidential deal basically sold the Afghan government, signing a “surrender agreement with the Taliban” in the words of his own national security adviser HR McMaster. With the deadline for U.S. withdrawal and no mechanisms are implemented to fulfill the Taliban promise, Trump sets the conditions for causing the disaster, and the Biden administration must handle the disaster within the first few months.

Trump’s pledge to end the war and stop sending money to Ukraine plus weapons is likely to be in a similar diplomatic dilemma against Ukraine in 2025. At least the Ukrainians know how this will end.

In fact, it is hard to imagine anyone passionate about Ukraine’s Afghan peace. A terrible peaceful settlement in Afghanistan: the peace of morgues and prison cells. This is exactly the peace currently occupying Russian territory in Ukraine.

What can Ukraine do?

The United States provides the most arms for Ukraine, but it is not the only supplier in the town. European allies have promised to lead with Germany. European leaders are reportedly trying to convince the incoming Trump administration to continue to provide Ukraine with at least one year.

In another year: This may be the resource that Russia has. It significantly increased military spending in 2025, but then the budget began to decline over the next two years. If the Russian economy really gets out of track due to the war, many Russia will give up their romance with Putin.

Zelensky’s security protocol is a temporary option. Ukraine may have to meet some of the vague promises of NATO joining and to stop another Russian invasion in the form of weapons, rather than nuclear weapons.

If Russia can succumb to negotiations (or convinced by the promise of sanctions relief), then Ukraine may have to swallow some kind of peaceful agreement on the following aspects, which would be harmful.

After Russia occupied part of Crimea and Donbas in 2014, I compared the situation in Ukraine to that of Aron Ralston, whose hikers found themselves trapped in a remote location with their arms nailed by boulders. Eventually, he decided to amputate his arm to survive.

I wrote: “If Ukraine wants to continue willing to get close to the West, it may also have to obey the knife.” “Who knows: After years of international isolation, unheard Russian support and economic stagnation, the ghost limbs themselves may attract new challenges. This is unfair. Russia has been playing dirty games. But, no one has said that the earth is fair.

Now, ten years later, the situation is even more desperate and even more unfair. But Putin is likely to live in borrowed time like Assad in the past decade. Russia is not omnipotent (Exhibition A: Impact of Syria’s close relatives and allies), and neither is Putin. The quagmire in Afghanistan began the collapse of the Soviet Union. The quagmire in Ukraine is likely to spell the end of Putin’s “Russian World”. Then, residents of Donbas and Crimea will beg Ukraine to settle in the EU safely to welcome them back.

((Foreign Policy Focus First published this article. )

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of fair observers.